The agricultural film season can't drag the plastic market
The agricultural film season can't drag the plastic market
Plastic prices have been weak since they peaked in May this year, and the market is divided over the later stages as the buying season approaches. Some market participants think in seasonal peak season, there will be a round of rising inventory plastics market, and from the aspects of supply and demand analysis, the writer think the plastic market will appear the phenomenon of "slack season, prices are still down space in the future.
Crude oil prices will continue to fall and the cost of olefin oil is down
The rebound in oil prices since march ended the process of U.S. shale-oil production cuts, and U.S. crude oil production only briefly fell in May and remains near its peak. The recovery in the number of drilling RIGS in the us has also confirmed that shale oil supply pressures are hard to ease in the near term.
OPEC crude oil output reached 313.78 million barrels per day in June, the highest in recent years. In combination with current OPEC's strategy for oil prices, the probability of increasing production to maintain market share is relatively high. In addition, the recent agreement on Iran's nuclear negotiations has also produced an additional interest in the oil market. Iran's supply of 1 million barrels per day is expected to hit the market in early 2016.
From the point of the dollar, the U.S. economic recovery is good, the unemployment rate and monthly new starting point for non-agricultural data are better than the previous cycle, so a stronger dollar is still the main trends in the late, this also obvious in oil.
The drop in oil prices has pulled down the cost of olefin. According to current oil price calculation, the cost of olefin oil is only 6,500 yuan/ton (excluding naphtha and ethylene link profit, without tax). Under the premise of easy supply and demand, plastic industry profit is squeezed, the future price still has the downside space.
The maintenance frequency of the device will slow down, and the supply of plastic will turn loose
According to statistics, China's PE capacity was 14.72 million tons in 2014, with new capacity increasing by 18.5%. In 2015, PE production capacity is expected to be 900,000 tons, with capacity growth of 5.8%, with 600,000 tons of capacity coming into production in the fourth quarter. Despite the limited supply pressure from data for 2015, the market still needs to absorb a lot of production capacity in 2014.
In respect of overhaul, the petrochemical enterprise's large set of equipment will be overhauled during the first half of the year, excluding the unexpected parking conditions, and the subsequent petrochemical maintenance frequency will slow down. As daqing petrochemical plant drives, only panjin ethylene and individual old devices continue to stop, the subsequent supply quantity will be significantly increased from the first half of the year.
On the import side, the cumulative import of LLDPE in January and June 2015 only increased by 0.69% compared with the previous year, while PE increased by 2.13%. Since the first half of 2015, Asian ethylene has been strong, import PE price is high, domestic general material price has been lower than imported goods for a long time, leading to the decline of LLDPE import growth. At present, the domestic common material replacement is obvious, only some high-end materials still need to be imported, and the latter is expected to maintain a relatively low growth rate.
The downstream demand is weak and the seasonal peak season is limited
From January to June, the cumulative output of plastic films was 6287 thousand tons, a year-on-year growth of 3.7% and a significant decline in growth. The slowdown in production growth corresponds to a slowdown in demand growth. Among them, the agricultural film market, the cumulative output growth in January and June was 8.2 per cent, down about 8 per cent from the same period last year. Autumn is the peak season for agricultural film consumption, but agricultural film consumption only accounts for 20% of the total consumption of PE. In the context of weak overall demand, there is a limit to the demand for plastic films.
