Spot high water plastic market divergence tends to become clear
Spot high water plastic market divergence tends to become clear
"Within two days, petrochina and sinopec continued to raise the price of linear market by 100 to 150 yuan per ton, while the prevailing market prices in east China, north China and south China have risen to 11,700-11,900 yuan/ton." Gao chunmin, general manager of China international futures Beijing industrial center, told reporters.
While the spot market price is approaching the 12,000rmb/ton round mark, the recent multi-air divergence in the domestic LLDPE futures market tends to be clear. On the back of the high water supply, LLDPE futures yesterday set a new record of 11,340 yuan per ton in 1409 contracts, with a significant decrease of 3,5240 hands to 43,4270. The previous day, total holdings in the LLDPE market climbed to a record high of 64.4, 000.
The "high water" that stirs market nerves
"In accordance with the closing price of 11,250 yuan/ton of the main 1409 contract of LLDPE yesterday, futures market forward contracts are still heavily attached to the spot market price of 450-650 yuan/ton." "Gao said.
"The rise and rise of plastic has quickly spread across the country's mainstream markets." Energy chemical industry research institute Tang Fenglei said zheshang futures, spot market prices high premium clearly limits the price decline of domestic market LLDPE, LLDPE main contract since this is the week rapid rebound in 1409 300 yuan/tons of main engine.
Opportunity or gimmick?
"This week, the shutdown and maintenance of multiple linear production enterprises in China has added significant bullish leverage to the market." "Said gao. According to reporter understanding, May 3 solstice 15, xinjiang dushanzi petrochemical 600000 tons full density has a production line at the breakdown maintenance stage, on May 14 June solstice, the enterprise of 300000 tons of low voltage linear has been in shutdown maintenance; May 5 solstice 17, jilin petrochemical 270,000 tons linear parking overhaul; On May 18, the town of the largest 450,000 tons of fully linear equipment in east China will also start the shutdown for 42 days...
The focus of intensive parking and maintenance in production enterprises is the focus of the industry.
"It's still hard to say whether intensive corporate downtime is a gimmick or an opportunity for the market." Tang Fenglei, according to the current high prices have on downstream demand regimes, and is currently at the stage of off-season needs PE market, domestic PE, the spot price rather than a fall can eventually get end demand recognition of enterprise still need to make a question mark.
In fact, domestic PE market is not out of stock, and mainstream petrochemical enterprises have higher linear inventory, but in order to control the market price, they adopt the sales rhythm of controlled release. "At the same time, although the domestic linear production equipment is in intensive maintenance in May, the market still faces a dilemma when new installations such as sichuan petrochemical are also starting to supply the market." "Gao chunmin analyzed.
Where are the warehouse orders?
"LLDPE spot on April 30, 1405 unilateral position for 7389, but on the day of dalian warehouse daily according to registration of the warehouse receipt number only about 545 hands, which become the important factors affecting the market price of bullish market outlook." Gao chunmin believes that there are two reasons for the initial domestic futures market registration of the warehouse to be found, the domestic spot market high water, the enterprises in the futures market registered warehouse receipt of losses; The second is that domestic mainstream goods are in the hands of petrochemical manufacturers, the intermediate traders and downstream demand enterprises have low inventory, while the enterprise registration warehouse with the source of the goods needs a process.
Under the market pattern, the spot month in April 1405 contract with the spot market rose 475 yuan/ton to 475 yuan/ton, and since this week continue rose 85 yuan/ton to 11650 yuan/ton yesterday, close to the main trend of the domestic spot market price level.
In the case of the spot monthly contract price keeps rising, in May, the untraceable warehouse orders are beginning to emerge. Yesterday, the daily newspaper showed that the day of the new registered warehouse of 786 hands, the cancellation of the ham-list 62 hands, the total number of warehouse orders climbed to 1743.
"This week's increase in the volume of warehouse orders in the futures market shows that domestic futures market prices are already attractive to industry companies." Mr Gao believes that LLDPE prices are under pressure in the new market, which is emerging in the domestic futures market.
